The Q3 earnings preview
Where the story stands for the companies that I have analyzed, and what I will be watching for in their upcoming Q3 reports.
As we enter Q3 reporting, here’s a brief update on the companies I’ve analyzed - where the theses stand, what changed, and the key questions into upcoming reports.
Vitec and Carasent report already this week on 16 Oct. This is an early-report timing that, in my book, signals disciplined processes and strong internal controls. I will publish quick takeaways after the reports.
Performance across the Conviction List (BUY) has been mixed so far this quarter:
Positive: Embracer has surged over 20% since my latest update, supported by strong news flow.
Negative: Evolution has declined around 20% despite strengthening fundamentals, and Carasent has traded lower on no material news.
On the Watchlist, broadly positive; ChemoMetec +31%, pushing a potential entry further out.
Unless noted, all current prices below are as of 10 Oct 2025. I am also publishing Part 2 on Pandora on Tuesday (Part 1 here)…. busy week.
The Conviction List (BUY)
These are the companies where my original analysis suggests a clear path to compounding at over 20% annually. The upcoming reports will be a test of whether the underlying business momentum still supports this conviction. Of course short-term fluctuations will happen; key for me is understanding if anything has changed in the underlying thesis.
Embracer Group
Original Analysis: Embracer: Forged in fire, awaiting a new fellowship (Sep 16, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 37%
Price at analysis / current: SEK 88 → SEK 106.78 (+21%) ✅
Thesis status: Intact, monitoring separation execution.
Context & Recent developments: Stock has developed favourably, with several analyst upgrades. The company is moving forward with the spin-off of its Coffee Stain division, with a Capital Markets Event scheduled for 17 Nov 2025.
What I am watching:
Updates and outlook on Coffee Stain spin-off
That business is tracking well vs. my base case of 10% yearly revenue growth, and 25% adjusted EBITDA margin
Next Report: November 13, 2025
GN Store Nord
Original Analysis: GN Store Nord: Finding signal in the noise (Aug 30, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 21%
Price at analysis / current: DKK 116.00 → DKK 117.35 (+1%) ✅
Thesis status: Intact, awaiting continued proof.
Context & Recent developments: Virtually no updates from the company, and stock trading sideways.
What I am watching:
Signs that operational turnaround continues to deliver, with continued margin expansion (13.1% EBITDA in Q2), cash flow generation and ideally return to growth in Enterprise and Gaming divisions.
Next Report: November 6, 2025
Vitec Software Group
Original Analysis: Vitec Software: A Swedish Constellation Software (Aug 15, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 23%
Price at analysis / current: SEK 362.20 → SEK 360.00 (–1%) 🔻
Thesis status: Intact, some positive developments.
Context & Recent developments: Stock trading sideways. CEO Olle Backman making a major purchase of 10,000 shares. Positive broker coverage, with one bank upgrading the stock to a “Buy” with a SEK 445 price target.
What I am watching:
Are they on track to make 5-7 acquisitions per year, leading to a total growth of 10+%? Are they on track vs. my 5-7% organic growth rate base case?
EBITA margin improving from Q1-Q2’25 lows (25-26%), signs that path to 32-33% still is clear
Next Report: October 16, 2025
Carasent AB
Original Analysis: Carasent: From messy roll-up to world-class compounder (Aug 1, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 22%
Price at analysis / current: SEK 28.60 → SEK 25.90 (–9%) 🔻
Thesis status: Intact, without any recent news.
Context & Recent developments: Stock has traded slightly down, but with virtually no updates from the company.
What I am watching:
Any update on German expansion
NRR remaining strong (109% in Q2, despite some customer bankruptcies)
Organic revenue growth tracking towards my 18+% base case, and EBITDA margin continuing to improve vs. my 2030 target of 37%
Next Report: October 16, 2025
Evolution AB
Original Analysis: Evolution AB: The Price of Dominance (Aug 8, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 33%
Price at analysis / current: SEK 863 → SEK 714.20 (–17%) 🔻
Thesis status: Intact (stronger), price drop, volatile with regulatory overhang.
Context & Recent developments: The stock has been highly volatile and trending down following new allegations regarding unregulated markets, which has overshadowed that 1) share buyback continues and 2) Las Vegas Sands is exiting their live casino venture (earlier this year Light & Wonder did the same), which strengthens the US thesis.
What I am watching:
That Asia is back on growth path, revenue a bit above EUR 210 million for the quarter, and updates regarding cybercriminal activity. Read my deep dive; Evolution AB's Asian headwinds
US continuing to deliver stronger growth, ideally +20% annualized. Read my deep dive; Evolution: An American fortress
Next Report: October 23, 2025
The Watchlist
These are high-quality companies whose current valuations, based on my analysis, do not yet offer a clear path to our 20%+ annual return hurdle. I am watching them closely for either a significant operational improvement or a more attractive entry point.
ChemoMetec
Original Analysis: ChemoMetec: The Danish tollbooth for the cell therapy revolution (Sep 6, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 10%
Price at analysis / current: DKK 519.00 → DKK 678.50 (+31%) ✅
Thesis status: Watchlist, somewhat stronger fundamentals, valuation stretched.
Context & Recent developments: Strong report and very positive guidance for next year (EBITDA DKK 295 - 315 million) on 11 September sent the stock surging. Seems to be on track for automated solutions for advanced therapies.
What I am watching: Signs of continued success, with Instrument sales as the backbone one-timers feeding Consumables and Services recurring sales. Development ideally above or in line with my 2030 outlook of 18% annualized revenue growth and 55% EBITDA margin.
Next Report: November 5, 2025 (trading statement)
Ambu
Original Analysis: Ambu A/S: Beyond the Bag (Aug 22, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 12%
Price at analysis / current: DKK 94.00 → DKK 103.10 (+10%) ✅
Thesis status: Watchlist, new strategy, stretched valuation.
Context & Recent developments:
Positive stock development. The last quarterly report (Q3 24/25) showed strong revenue momentum with 12% organic growth
CMD on October 1. Launched its Zoom Ahead strategy to become a global leader in endoscopy. The five-year organic growth target is raised to 11–13 percent for the 2029/30 financial year, compared with the previous target of 10 percent for 2027/28.
What I am watching:
Growth tracking in line with most recent quarter, i.e. 12.0% organic revenue growth, and EBIT margin improving towards 20% long-term target (11.3% EBIT margin before special items, in latest report).
Next Report: November 5, 2025
Ørsted
Original Analysis: Ørsted: Reset, recapitalized, repriced (Sep 25, 2025)
Base case 5Y CAGR: 19.6% (just below threshold)
Price at analysis / current: DKK 118.10 → DKK 119.00 (+1%) ✅
Thesis status: Watchlist, balance sheet improved and in prove-it phase.
Context & Recent developments: The company completed its ~DKK 59.6 billion rights issue and announced a significant cost-cutting program, shedding 2000 employees. Stock trading sideways.
What I am watching: Any further project impairments and a realistic, achievable EBITDA outlook for 2026.
Next Report: November 5, 2025