When I first initiated coverage on Carasent, my core thesis was straightforward. I saw a high-margin, critical healthcare software engine trapped in the turmoil of an aggressive 2020–2022 acquisition spree. It was a operator-led turnaround ready to unlock operating leverage.
Across the prior memos; from the profitability inflection in Q3 2025 to buying the AI disintermediation panic in Q4 2025 and tracking the core acceleration in Q1 2026, the original thesis still held fast.
What I believe the market currently is missing is that Carasent has become a highly profitable, multi-vector expansion platform.
The integration of InfoSolutions is creating high-margin diagnostic transaction flows.
Medsum AI documentation assistant has moved from pilot status to a commercial add-on driving organic average revenue per user (ARPU).
The German expansion via the localized Webcur platform (formerly Webdoc X) has achieved its critical initial milestone by onboarding its first paying customers.
Trading at SEK 24.70, the market continues to price Carasent at a disconnect from its underlying cash generation potential.
Snapshot: Carasent AB (publ)
Ticker: CARA.ST (Nasdaq Stockholm)
Share Price: SEK 24.70 (5th of August 2026)
Market Cap: ~SEK 1.7 billion
Enterprise Value (EV): ~SEK 1.55 billion
Net Cash: SEK 140 million
Sector: Healthcare Vertical SaaS
5-year outlook: High-conviction BUY with a Base Case target of SEK 77 (+25.5% CAGR next 5 years).
The SaaS engine is accelerating
To really understand why I am so bullish on Carasent at SEK 24.70, we have to remove the consulting revenues, which naturally fluctuated after they wrapped up the migration project for Volvat in Norway, and look directly at the underlying break-down.
Carasent delivered SEK 97.4 million in net sales for Q2, which is an 18% reported year-over-year growth (11% organic). But the kicker is in the software subscriptions. Contracted ARR surged 29.5% to SEK 401 million. If you remove the recent M&A activity, organic ARR growth at constant currency held strong at 15%.
In the core Nordic market, organic ARR actually accelerated to 17%. That is exactly what you want to see from a mature home market.
One of the most impressive numbers here is the churn. Total group churn dropped to 3.0%, but that includes the planned wind-down of their legacy German product (Data-AL). If you look strictly at the core Nordic operations, churn fell to an all-time low of 1.6%. That is incredibly sticky software. Once a clinic installs Carasent, it stays.
InfoSolutions: Buying a deeper moat
When Carasent announced the acquisition of InfoSolutions earlier this year, some investors got nervous, worrying it was a return to the M&A habits of the previous management team. I see it differently. This was a highly strategic move to capture pricing power, see also my previous write-up.
InfoSolutions is essentially the digital bridge for lab requisitions and diagnostic communication in Sweden. It connects healthcare clinics directly with central laboratories and hospital systems. By bringing InfoSolutions in-house, Carasent accomplished two things:
Eliminating the middleman: They captured the full fee pool on lab transactions, ending third-party software friction. Standalone ARR for InfoSolutions already expanded from SEK 34 million to SEK 42 million in Q1/Q2.
Securing a Trojan horse: When a competing EHR provider operates in Sweden, they still have to route their lab requests through Carasent’s newly acquired network.
…and management didn’t waste time post-acquisition…
They immediately cut InfoSolutions’ headcount by 25% to align with target cost structures, taking a one-off hit in Q2.
More importantly, they’ve already announced a 20% price increase on InfoSolutions ARR taking effect in January 2027. Because this workflow is mission-critical, churn risk is negligible. That 20% uplift is going to flow almost straight to the bottom line next year.
Monetizing from AI: From panic to profit
For the past year, software valuations have been weighed down by the generic fear that AI will replace seat-based SaaS platforms. I argued back in Q4 2025 that you simply cannot “vibe-code” an Electronic Health Record system. These platforms are bought to manage legal risk, handle strict regulatory compliance, and ensure patient safety.
Carasent’s rollout of Medsum, which is their native AI ambient listening assistant, proves that AI is an upsell weapon, not a threat.
Medsum listens to patient consultations and automatically drafts clinical notes, referrals, and prescriptions directly into the EHR. After switching the underlying LLM from open-source Llama to European Azure-hosted OpenAI instances, accuracy hit needed standards. The commercial traction has been immediate:
Zero churn: By the end of June 2026, they scaled past 300 active users and 200 paying users (generating SEK 2 million in ARR). To date, not a single user has churned. When you save a doctor 15% to 30% of their daily documentation time, they refuse to give the tool back.
The math: Medsum is priced at SEK 750 per user per month. Carasent has roughly 18,000 clinicians in its network. If they eventually hit a 50% penetration rate, that’s over SEK 80 million in ultra-high-margin ARR unlocked from a single add-on.
They are currently spending about SEK 2 million in H2 2026 to get Medsum certified under the Medical Device Regulation (MDR), legal requirements which are now coming into effect. Third-party AI wrappers without certification won’t legally be able to compete with Carasent’s native integration.
Operating leverage & the German outlook
The true test of a vertical software business is what happens to cash flow when revenues scale. Under Daniel Öhman, Carasent capped its fixed costs to let the organic growth drop through.
For the last eight quarters, Carasent’s adjusted cash cost base has hovered flat around SEK 229 million, even as contracted ARR grew by over SEK 160 million. That is textbook operating leverage. We are seeing 70% to 80% of incremental organic software revenue dropping straight to cash operating profit (EBITDAC).
At the same time, they are cleaning up the German (DACH) expansion. This has to some extent been a wait-and-see project as they wound down legacy software. Now, with a new sales-focused CEO in Germany, the localized cloud platform (Webcur) has transitioned from testing to commercial execution, onboarding its first paying customers this year. I model Germany very conservatively, but any real traction there is pure upside.
Valuation update
To value Carasent accurately, I updated my 5-year model to see where this cash-generation machine sits at maturity in 2031. This model accounts for tax-adjusted cash generation, net cash accumulation, and conservative exit multiples. I keep the parameters intact from the last update, if anything I am slightly more bullish following the Q2 report.
The Base Case: Management simply hits their 15% organic growth target, reinforced by the 2027 InfoSolutions price hike. Cash costs stay disciplined, margins expand, and we essentially triple our money purely on steady execution.
The Bull Case: Webcur gets real traction in Germany and Medsum AI adoption scales past 40% penetration. The business generates massive free cash flow, exiting 2031 with over a billion SEK in the bank.
The Bear Case: Germany stalls and Nordic growth slows to single digits. Even in this downside scenario, the company’s structural cash generation floors the valuation. You still make a slight positive return from today’s SEK 24.70 entry price.
Final thoughts and watchpoints
Ultimately, my Fjord Alpha verdict remains unchanged: High-conviction BUY.
At SEK 24.70, you are paying a depressed multiple for a debt-free, sticky, highly recurring software platform that is successfully monetizing AI and unlocking serious margin expansion. As the quarters tick by and the cash piles up on the balance sheet (or is put to use elsewhere), the market will be forced to re-rate this asset.
✅ Mission-critical EHR platform
✅ Proven operating leverage
✅ Commercial AI adoption (Medsum) scaling with 0% churn
✅ 20% InfoSolutions price hike in January 2027
⚠️ Commercial execution on German sales rollout
🎯 5-Year Target Price (Base case): SEK 77
📈 Implied 5-year compound return: 25.5% CAGR
💡 Conviction level: HIGH (BUY)
Your exit multiple and EBITDA-margins for 2031 are too optimistic
hi 💛