Heading into this report, I had three main items on my checklist, beyond tracking ARR, NRR etc. It was 1) the successful wrap-up of the Volvat migration, 2) the transition of the German Webcur platform from pilot to revenue, and 3) a pulse check on the new Medsum AI rollout.
Operationally, Carasent checked these boxes. Volvat is wrapped-up and live, the first paying customers are on the books in Germany, and Medsum adoption has accelerated sharply following the switch to OpenAI.
However, the stock price tells a different story. Carasent’s shares fell following the release, dropping from SEK 24+ to SEK 22.90. The reaction was triggered by a “miss” on total revenue growth, which came in at just 6%. To the casual observer, it looks like a slowdown. To those of us looking at the unit economics, it was a quarter of continued de-risking obscured by one-off noise.
In this update, I break down why the market is misinterpreting the consulting revenue drop and why the core subscription business is actually healthier than it was three months ago.
