Carasent Q4-25: Why I am buying the fear
The market believes AI will kill SaaS, but Carasent just delivered a Q4-25 that proves the fear is dead wrong. Carasent is wrongly priced for failure and has obvious multi-bagger potential.
SaaS sentiment is ugly right now. The popular narrative is that AI agents will commoditize software and compress margins, so anything that looks like a mature platform gets punished.
Good. That panic has created an amazing entry point for a company that is executing across a multitude of growth vectors, with ultra deep moats.
While the market frets about AI disruption, Carasent delivered 15% organic growth and swung from a loss last year to a 16% EBITDAC margin. We are seeing classic operating leverage kick in. Revenue is up, the cost base has stabilized, and incremental growth should increasingly convert to profit.
In this Fjord Alpha update, we cut through the “SaaS scare” to look at the math. Inside, subscribers will find:
Updated valuation model: refreshed 2030 scenario analysis (base/bull/bear). Even the bear case implies reasonable upside from today’s price.
The operating leverage equation: how much incremental revenue converts to cash profit, and why margins can expand from here.
Why you can’t “AI” a clinic: why “AI disrupts SaaS” is the wrong frame for healthcare systems of record, and why the moat can deepen.
Sure, there are watch-outs. Germany is delayed, and the macro sentiment is tough. But when a company executes like this and trades like this, you pay attention. That is the kind of asymmetry we hunt for.
Starting February 1, the detailed post-earnings analyses are exclusive to the paid tier. If you want the full valuation sheet, scenario math, and the line-by-line breakdown of what’s driving value, upgrade to the paid tier.
Charter Member offer: lock in the 20% seed-round price reduction permanently. Offer expires February 28.
