Welcome to Fjord Alpha. I am a private investor with Nordic roots and 25 years of investing experience. I write about Nordic and selected Northern European companies, looking for opportunities where the market’s expectations differ meaningfully from my own.
If you are new here, this page explains how I invest and gives you three free articles to start with.
How I invest
I start with the business. How does it make money? Why do customers stay? What could earnings and cash flow look like five years from now, and can management turn that potential into value for shareholders?
Some opportunities come from a strong business that investors have overlooked. Others emerge when temporary problems obscure a company’s earning power, or when a change in the business has yet to become clear in the reported numbers. I look across sectors and company sizes, with the same questions about business quality, valuation and risk.
For a new investment, I generally look for a credible path to around 20% annualised returns over five years in my base case. That is a hurdle for selecting investments, not a promise of returns. I also work through what could go wrong, what the downside could be and which assumptions would need to hold.
My research combines company reports and valuation work with my network, company visits and investor meetings organised by banks. These conversations help me ask better questions and challenge my assumptions. The conclusions are my own.
The work continues after the first article. I follow quarterly results, reassess the valuation and explain when the evidence changes my view. A better business does not automatically make a stock a better buy if the price has already moved.
Three examples from my research
These are selected positive outcomes from the companies I have analysed. Each example links to a free article so you can examine the reasoning yourself.
Hexatronic
Approximately +118% from the reference price in my first analysis.
I published the original analysis on 10 December 2025 at a reference price of around SEK 21.0. The case looked beyond the downturn in fibre demand to the potential in Data Center, Harsh Environment and the group’s US manufacturing footprint. It was an opportunity to examine whether the market had become too pessimistic about the business that remained.
Read the original Hexatronic analysis free
The share price has since more than doubled. That makes the current valuation a different question from the one in the original article. Read my latest Hexatronic assessment for paid subscribers.
Embracer
Approximately +30% including the value of the distributed Coffee Stain shares.
My first analysis, published on 16 September 2025, used a reference price of SEK 88. I saw a group emerging from a painful restructuring with a stronger balance sheet and valuable intellectual property. The question was whether a simpler business and better execution could unlock that value.
The comparison includes both the remaining Embracer share and the Coffee Stain share subsequently distributed to its owner. Following what shareholders actually retain is essential when assessing a breakup.
Read the original Embracer analysis free
Pexip
Approximately +23% from the reference price in my first analysis. Watchlist at initiation.
I began coverage in November 2025 at a reference price of NOK 57. The opportunity was the shift towards secure video communications, with a more attractive business mix and improving profitability. My base case fell short of the return hurdle, so I placed Pexip on the watchlist.
The free Q2 review shows how I followed that progress and weighed the improving business against a higher share price. It is a useful example of the valuation discipline behind the research.
Figures are measured from the reference prices stated in the first analyses to closing prices on 30 October 2026, in local currency. They exclude cash dividends, fees and taxes and are not annualised or portfolio returns. Embracer includes one distributed Coffee Stain share per original share. Starting prices may be approximate or predate publication. These are selected examples, and other covered companies have fallen. Past performance does not predict future results.
Follow the next idea
Free subscribers receive the weekly overview, previews and selected full analyses. It is an easy way to get to know my approach and discover new companies.
Paid subscribers receive the full research, valuations and ongoing company coverage. Between reporting seasons, I aim for around two deep dives a month, alongside a monthly opportunity review. During earnings season, publication is substantially more frequent as the companies report. Paid access also includes the research archive.
The original articles show what I saw at the time. The ongoing coverage helps you assess what has changed and whether the opportunity still exists at today’s price.