Great post here. Thanks so much for this. Been looking very closely at them too. Distressed, caught up in US politics. This does indeed have the makings of a company pushed down too low by temporary negative sentiment. But I wonder what you think about them in terms of quality? I see a lot I like. But I also see very low figures for things like ROA, ROCE and ROIC. Any thoughts there? Thanks.
Thanks for reading and the question. The low ROIC etc. is a misleading snapshot. It is like judging a half-built building, all cost and no income, which for now crushes the metrics
The key measure here is the future cash flow, so I focus on project-level IRR and the coming step-up in EBITDA instead. Of course, you need to trust this will materialize, which is at the core of the thesis. Thanks again for commenting!
Can you explain how you get to 4x ebitda? With 1.32b pro forma shares and a px of 118DKK, that is a market cap of 155b DKK. I think that is $24b market cap. You have a lower market cap in your table. Thanks.
Sharp eye. That was a fat-finger on my part in the underlying data to the table. The multiple should be ~7.5x. Thanks for the correction, post is updated to reflect this.
Great post here. Thanks so much for this. Been looking very closely at them too. Distressed, caught up in US politics. This does indeed have the makings of a company pushed down too low by temporary negative sentiment. But I wonder what you think about them in terms of quality? I see a lot I like. But I also see very low figures for things like ROA, ROCE and ROIC. Any thoughts there? Thanks.
Thanks for reading and the question. The low ROIC etc. is a misleading snapshot. It is like judging a half-built building, all cost and no income, which for now crushes the metrics
The key measure here is the future cash flow, so I focus on project-level IRR and the coming step-up in EBITDA instead. Of course, you need to trust this will materialize, which is at the core of the thesis. Thanks again for commenting!
Can you explain how you get to 4x ebitda? With 1.32b pro forma shares and a px of 118DKK, that is a market cap of 155b DKK. I think that is $24b market cap. You have a lower market cap in your table. Thanks.
Sharp eye. That was a fat-finger on my part in the underlying data to the table. The multiple should be ~7.5x. Thanks for the correction, post is updated to reflect this.