How this Norwegian mid-cap is shifting from a low-moat video bridge to a higher-growth, cash-generating, secure platform. Will it clear Fjord Alpha’s bar?
The soverein cloud angle is really compelling here. What sticks out most is how the defensive sector wins (DoD, Bundeswehr) signal something bigger than just niche contracts. If geopolitical tensions keep escalating, that regulatory moat around data soverignty could become even more valuable. The two speed model makes sense, but I wonder if the Connected segment churn acelerates faster than expected?
Thanks for commenting! Rightly so, and when / if more contracts are made public, this will strengthen the thesis further. Let's also see if any adjacent add-on functionality is developed that can help strengthen NRR even more. The Connected segment is an uncertainty, and with increased churn we are likely looking more towards my Bear case, but it is not my expectation.
Thanks for reading and commenting! I have not assumed any further dividends or buy backs, but instead added the increasing net cash position to the EV. I have clarified this in the article.
After reading your analysis and coincidentally stumbled upon another analysis on Pexip at the same time, I am really interested to get on board as well. Just from my gut feeling your base case is quite conservative. I will watch it closely.
Pexip has been a great ride for the last 3 years. I sold my last shares when it crossed 60, but it's a stock I would love to see lower just to make a new entry. Great writeup!
(It's also been part of the NHG model portfolio, so you might want to share this one on our Discord)
It has indeed been a good journey. My wife(!) has had a small holding for some years that has developed very nicely... I wanted to understand if it was time for me to join in. Exit at 60 sounds attractive, high probability that capital will compound better elsewhere!
The soverein cloud angle is really compelling here. What sticks out most is how the defensive sector wins (DoD, Bundeswehr) signal something bigger than just niche contracts. If geopolitical tensions keep escalating, that regulatory moat around data soverignty could become even more valuable. The two speed model makes sense, but I wonder if the Connected segment churn acelerates faster than expected?
Thanks for commenting! Rightly so, and when / if more contracts are made public, this will strengthen the thesis further. Let's also see if any adjacent add-on functionality is developed that can help strengthen NRR even more. The Connected segment is an uncertainty, and with increased churn we are likely looking more towards my Bear case, but it is not my expectation.
What about the dividend and share buybacks - these are missing in your valuation/CAGR?
Thanks for reading and commenting! I have not assumed any further dividends or buy backs, but instead added the increasing net cash position to the EV. I have clarified this in the article.
Thanks for clarifying and for your report!
After reading your analysis and coincidentally stumbled upon another analysis on Pexip at the same time, I am really interested to get on board as well. Just from my gut feeling your base case is quite conservative. I will watch it closely.
Great writeup! My worry is the connected spaces business. Churn is somewhat high. Hopefully can stabilize
Pexip has been a great ride for the last 3 years. I sold my last shares when it crossed 60, but it's a stock I would love to see lower just to make a new entry. Great writeup!
(It's also been part of the NHG model portfolio, so you might want to share this one on our Discord)
It has indeed been a good journey. My wife(!) has had a small holding for some years that has developed very nicely... I wanted to understand if it was time for me to join in. Exit at 60 sounds attractive, high probability that capital will compound better elsewhere!