6 Comments
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Sagar Shah's avatar

Don’t you think if it’s going to be expensive for Evolution than it will be expensive for the cyber attackers to keep funding. Eventually they will have to thwart their efforts because the roi is not worth it.

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Christian Crafoord's avatar

u keep stealing my post ideas! although i would probably never go as deep as you, good work!

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The Curious Investor's avatar

interesting article, thanks for putting it together

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Fjord Alpha's avatar

Thank you for reading, and commenting! I must say, it was also interesting to research and put together!

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Niels's avatar

Again a great article! The Evolution AB case is a special one. The industry is growing, the company is not losing share, it remains best in class, yet the margins are shrinking. Very special case. You don’t see that too often. In the long run it will turn out fine. In the short term people will shout that they’re a company in decline. If you do the dcf exercise with 10 or 15 years, you should see a decent return indeed. Perhaps not the 30% you’re expecting, but at least something market beating. In a few years we might all look back and think why not more people saw this is just a dip.

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Fjord Alpha's avatar

Thanks for commenting. 100% agree. I have high confidence this one will comfortably beat my 20+% hurdle rate over the next 5 years.

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