Great read! Well structured, detailed and not beating around the bush. I subscribed. I must say that I think the valuation you came up with is a bit rich, however I do agree that the current price is a good point of entry. Certainly if you want to hold for the long term (10 years).
Thanks, Niels. Appreciate the feedback. To me, the final multiple in 2030 is always the key debate. My conviction is that the underlying industry growth is so powerful that even with a more conservative exit multiple, the business has a significant buffer to clear that 20%+ hurdle. It's that margin of safety that makes the case compelling for me.
Thanks for this amazing writeip. Well written. I agree with Niels regarding valuation. I am happy with the Bear Case. Though your Base Case might come true - or at least 2 years of strong >15% growth that lead to a strong rerating and an multiple >30 for a periode of time.
Very well written. May I reach out to you if I find sth interesting in the Swedish market?
...I am gping right now through a list of sub 200M MCap companies
Will be interesting to see how it plays out - I feel confident the growth will materialize, and will release separate articles looking into the key drivers in Asia and US. Exit multiple is of course more uncertain and also dependent on market conditions at that point. As a base case I believe the multiple is relevant, if Evolution delivers on the rest of the parameters.
Of course - you are more than welcome to reach out!
Great read! Well structured, detailed and not beating around the bush. I subscribed. I must say that I think the valuation you came up with is a bit rich, however I do agree that the current price is a good point of entry. Certainly if you want to hold for the long term (10 years).
Thanks, Niels. Appreciate the feedback. To me, the final multiple in 2030 is always the key debate. My conviction is that the underlying industry growth is so powerful that even with a more conservative exit multiple, the business has a significant buffer to clear that 20%+ hurdle. It's that margin of safety that makes the case compelling for me.
nice i made a post too not too long ago 🤍
Thanks - will check it out! I like the cool images you use for your posts btw!
Someone who wakes up early on a Sunday. Love it 🤗
Thanks for this amazing writeip. Well written. I agree with Niels regarding valuation. I am happy with the Bear Case. Though your Base Case might come true - or at least 2 years of strong >15% growth that lead to a strong rerating and an multiple >30 for a periode of time.
Very well written. May I reach out to you if I find sth interesting in the Swedish market?
...I am gping right now through a list of sub 200M MCap companies
Will be interesting to see how it plays out - I feel confident the growth will materialize, and will release separate articles looking into the key drivers in Asia and US. Exit multiple is of course more uncertain and also dependent on market conditions at that point. As a base case I believe the multiple is relevant, if Evolution delivers on the rest of the parameters.
Of course - you are more than welcome to reach out!