I've been in Embracer since the 'Saudi-drop' for the exposure to the key IP (how LOTR was acquired for just 400 mill I will never know...) and have experienced first-hand how much they just love chaos over there!
But with the amazing Asmodee spin off (genuinely did not expect the share prices that's pushing), the recent resurgence (and even preference) of AA titles - Dead Island 2 and KCD2 really showcasing big long-term franchise potential - and a refocus on their core IPs (like you say, TR has big blockbuster power, if done right) I'm genuinely really excited about their future.
The next stage of this rollercoaster is ofc the Coffee Stain spin off - any estimates on what we can expect the stock price split to be between Fellowship Entertainment and Coffee Stain?
Thanks so much for the nice feedback and for sharing your insights! Really glad you enjoyed the piece :)
It has indeed been a wild ride for anyone following Embracer, especially since the Saudi drop. It is fascinating how they managed to acquire IPs like Lord of the Rings for such a relative steal, a testament to what's possible in periods of perceived weakness.
I agree with your optimism on Asmodee; the market's reaction there was a validation of the value locked up. And yes, the performance of AAA/AA titles like Dead Island 2 and the potential for KCD2 (big fan of the first!) really highlights the diversified strength that often gets overlooked.
Regarding the Coffee Stain spin-off and the stock price split between Fellowship and Coffee Stain, that's the million-dollar question right now... It's still a bit early for definitive estimates from my side, as we're waiting for concrete details on the carve-out financials and debt allocation for each entity.
However, the recent analyst upgrades (like Pareto with their SEK 140 target) are already trying to do this sum-of-the-parts valuation, suggesting Coffee Stain alone could command a significant portion of the current valuation, leaving Fellowship Entertainment very cheaply valued. It will be a key catalyst to watch closely, and I'll certainly be sharing my thoughts as more information becomes available!
Thanks for reading and commenting, much appreciated. I guess it is a combination of factors:
I have a long list of companies I have been following and researching for a while, with many initial thoughts and scribbles already done. Fjord Alpha has just given me the push to formalize them.
I genuinely love diving deep into stocks and following interesting companies. The initial burst of motivation is definitely helping now at the beginning :) I am putting aside time every day for writing. I also leverage tools, notably AI for basic research and polishing the text, which really helps the workflow and frees up time for thinking and analysis.
Still, I want to keep a high cadence and quality, and it might not be possible to do long memos on a weekly basis. I might move to a bi-weekly deep-dive once the initial backlog is cleared, with shorter updates and notes in between. Let's see.
Anyhow, glad you're enjoying the content, and thanks again for the comment :)
Great write-up. The transmedia flywheel around LOTR and Tomb Raider is compelling, but how much confidence do you have that management culture has really shifted? Is this truly ‘Fellowship 2.0’, or could old habits creep back once capital starts flowing again?
Thanks for reading and commenting! You have nailed the critical, unquantifiable risk. My confidence in words is low. The focus must be on verifying their actions. The real test to me is M&A discipline. Small, strategic bolt-ons would prove "Fellowship 2.0", while a return to large-scale and dilutive acquisitions would prove that the old habits die hard. Still the case is compelling enough that I am ready to take this risk on.
This was an absolutely fantastic piece.
I've been in Embracer since the 'Saudi-drop' for the exposure to the key IP (how LOTR was acquired for just 400 mill I will never know...) and have experienced first-hand how much they just love chaos over there!
But with the amazing Asmodee spin off (genuinely did not expect the share prices that's pushing), the recent resurgence (and even preference) of AA titles - Dead Island 2 and KCD2 really showcasing big long-term franchise potential - and a refocus on their core IPs (like you say, TR has big blockbuster power, if done right) I'm genuinely really excited about their future.
The next stage of this rollercoaster is ofc the Coffee Stain spin off - any estimates on what we can expect the stock price split to be between Fellowship Entertainment and Coffee Stain?
Thanks so much for the nice feedback and for sharing your insights! Really glad you enjoyed the piece :)
It has indeed been a wild ride for anyone following Embracer, especially since the Saudi drop. It is fascinating how they managed to acquire IPs like Lord of the Rings for such a relative steal, a testament to what's possible in periods of perceived weakness.
I agree with your optimism on Asmodee; the market's reaction there was a validation of the value locked up. And yes, the performance of AAA/AA titles like Dead Island 2 and the potential for KCD2 (big fan of the first!) really highlights the diversified strength that often gets overlooked.
Regarding the Coffee Stain spin-off and the stock price split between Fellowship and Coffee Stain, that's the million-dollar question right now... It's still a bit early for definitive estimates from my side, as we're waiting for concrete details on the carve-out financials and debt allocation for each entity.
However, the recent analyst upgrades (like Pareto with their SEK 140 target) are already trying to do this sum-of-the-parts valuation, suggesting Coffee Stain alone could command a significant portion of the current valuation, leaving Fellowship Entertainment very cheaply valued. It will be a key catalyst to watch closely, and I'll certainly be sharing my thoughts as more information becomes available!
i like the company, just hate the stock. same with starbreeze and even paradox although they are very different
Be greedy when others are fearful...
Great article. How are you able to produce so many high quality articles in such a short time? Interested in learning where you get your ideas from.
Thanks for reading and commenting, much appreciated. I guess it is a combination of factors:
I have a long list of companies I have been following and researching for a while, with many initial thoughts and scribbles already done. Fjord Alpha has just given me the push to formalize them.
I genuinely love diving deep into stocks and following interesting companies. The initial burst of motivation is definitely helping now at the beginning :) I am putting aside time every day for writing. I also leverage tools, notably AI for basic research and polishing the text, which really helps the workflow and frees up time for thinking and analysis.
Still, I want to keep a high cadence and quality, and it might not be possible to do long memos on a weekly basis. I might move to a bi-weekly deep-dive once the initial backlog is cleared, with shorter updates and notes in between. Let's see.
Anyhow, glad you're enjoying the content, and thanks again for the comment :)
Great write-up. The transmedia flywheel around LOTR and Tomb Raider is compelling, but how much confidence do you have that management culture has really shifted? Is this truly ‘Fellowship 2.0’, or could old habits creep back once capital starts flowing again?
Thanks for reading and commenting! You have nailed the critical, unquantifiable risk. My confidence in words is low. The focus must be on verifying their actions. The real test to me is M&A discipline. Small, strategic bolt-ons would prove "Fellowship 2.0", while a return to large-scale and dilutive acquisitions would prove that the old habits die hard. Still the case is compelling enough that I am ready to take this risk on.
Thank you for you rreply, really insightful.