Vitec Q4-25: The compounder strikes back
The boring compounder just woke up, delivering a report that sent the stock soaring 15%. In this deep dive, I look past the headlines to explain why the long-term thesis is as strong as ever.
Vitec reported its Q4 results last week, and the market response was immediate. The stock popped 15% before settling back down.
If you are looking for clarity in the price action, you won’t find it. The stock is currently caught in a tug-of-war between a stellar earnings report and a broader sector panic. The narrative that “AI will kill SaaS” is dragging down every software multiple, regardless of quality.
Look past the sector panic and the Q4 report does one important thing. It chips away at the bear case.
Yes, net sales were up only 6%, but the bigger story is what drove the growth. The “Vitec is growth-starved” narrative just took a hit as the subscription-based recurring revenue accelerated to +12%.
Profit optics were noisy. The reported operating profit rose 16% but was skewed by one-offs. Strip out the noise and Cash EBIT landed at SEK 227m. This is slightly down, but fully consistent with a healthy underlying business.
This is what a “sleep-well-at-night” compounder looks like when it starts to re-rate.
In today’s deep dive, I cut through the sector noise to value the actual business. I have updated my proprietary 2030 valuation model to show you why the current price offers asymmetric upside.
Inside the analysis:
The “hidden” beat: Why the 8% organic growth in subscription revenue is the most important number in the report.
The “noisy” P&L: A massive SEK 165m one-off item made the profit look messy. I explain what happened and why it actually signals management discipline.
The 2026 setup: With Autonet and Infometric already announced in Q1, the M&A flywheel has re-ignited. I model what this adds to 2026 earnings.
The AI reality check: Everyone is panic-selling SaaS on “vibe coding” fears. I explain why Vitec is less sensitive to this threat (and might even be a winner).
New valuation model: I break down my Bear, Base, and Bull cases for 2030. Hint: My “Base Case” now implies a very favorable return from today’s levels.
The full investment case and valuation model are available exclusively for subscribers.
⚠️ The “Charter Member” window is closing
I started this paid tier on February 1st to deliver the kind of high-grade research that generates alpha. If you want the full game plan for Vitec (and many more companies), now is the time.
Until February 28th, I am offering a Charter Member Rate:
✅ Lock in 20% OFF forever.
✅ Secure the lowest price this newsletter will ever offer.
✅ Get immediate, un-redacted access to this report.
