A few notes from the week

I thought I’d try a slightly different format this week (…without the pay wall!) - a short market digest with a few observations on the names I follow most closely, plus the macro and sentiment shifts that seem to be driving everything right now.

If time allows, I’d like to turn this into a weekly note. The aim is not to cover everything, but to focus on the handful of situations where the setup, the debate, or the market reaction looks most interesting.

Macro first: sentiment has turned sour

The broader backdrop matters more again.

A lot of the market conversation this week has been dominated by macro rather than single-stock fundamentals. Iran/Hormuz risk, higher oil sensitivity, and a more defensive tone have pushed many investors toward energy and cash. E.g., multiple markets are now firmly in correction territory after a weak March.

That does not mean stock-specific stories have disappeared, and it is opening up new opportunities. But it does mean the market is becoming less forgiving. In this type of sentiment, execution matters, weak narratives get exposed faster, and companies that can show clean operational progress tend to stand out.

Hexatronic: The recovery is hard to ignore

Stock has been very constructive lately, despite the strong macro head-winds, and is up 30+% MoM. Hexatronic savings program has delivered SEK 122m in cost savings, with a full annualised EBITDA effect of SEK 110m expected by the end of Q1 2026. For a company that spent much of 2024 and 2025 dealing with weaker margins and operational inefficiency, that matters.

A strong signal came in early March, when Hexatronic signed a binding acquisition in its Harsh Environment segment - which suggests management sees the business as stable enough to start building again.

The long-term case remains intact with fiber build-out in Europe and North America. What held the stock back previously was execution, but that is now looking more and more like it is fixed.

Carasent: Strong growth, limited attention

Carasent’s annual report, published on March 19, showed net sales of SEK 343.8m, up 25% year on year. Growth came from both the core business and the Data-AL acquisition.

Management is targeting average organic growth of 15% between 2026 and 2028, alongside a 35% EBITDA margin by 2028. With margins still in the mid-20s today, there is meaningful operating leverage left in the story.

What makes it interesting is the combination of a Nordic healthcare SaaS, solid growth, a credible margin path, and still limited market attention with a depressed stock price.

The AGM on April 20 in Stockholm should be worth watching, especially for commentary on capital allocation and M&A.

Ovzon: Quietly building a stronger base

Ovzon’s latest DoD order now in March, a $1.3m SATCOM contract starting immediately, is small on its own. But it fits an increasingly clear pattern.

The main point is that the DoD relationship now looks recurring rather than speculative. Add the $25.2m NATO nation contract announced in December, and defense revenue is becoming more visible and more durable.

The individual contract sizes are still modest, but the direction is right. The core thesis remains intact, and so does the conviction. Stock is also up vs. the broader market sell-off.

Evolution: Cheap buyback or more complicated?

Evolution is easily the stock generating the most debate right now, both fundamentally and on Nordic FinTwit. Stock has performing extremely well vs. the broader market lately, up 14% in the last month when the broader market is down, a welcome change.

The immediate trigger for debate was the decision to skip the 2025 dividend. On one level, the move can be read as a capital allocation shift, i.e. a proposed buyback of up to 10% of shares at roughly 10x free cash flow. On valuation alone, that looks attractive, and some investors have welcomed it as the more rational use of capital.

But the wider context has made the market uneasy.

Kenneth Dart has steadily increased his exposure through equity swaps and now controls close to 28%. A buyback is more tax-efficient for him than a dividend. At the same time, the founders pledged 13.54 million shares in February, reportedly to fund a new investment outside the casino industry. That is a notable move, especially as the company pauses shareholder distributions.

The company says these events are unrelated. The market is not fully convinced. Add the allegations around sanctioned markets and the Galaxy Gaming merger delay to July, and the result is a stock where the business itself looks stable, but the shareholder story is driving uncertainty.

That is also more or less how the FinTwit debate has lined up. Bulls see an obvious opportunity - if a company of this quality can buy back 10% of its stock at around 10x free cash flow, that should be accretive. Bears are asking a different question - why does the surrounding shareholder behaviour look so messy at exactly the moment the dividend disappears?

That is why Evolution remains so interesting here. This may yet resolve into a very attractive buyback at a trough valuation. But for now, the story is clearly more complicated than the headline suggests.

GN Store Nord: The rally told a too simple story

GN Store Nord jumped 36% on March 16 after announcing the sale of its Hearing business to Amplifon for DKK 17bn. The market’s first reaction was simple, i.e. clean up the structure, unlock value, move on.

That has proven too optimistic, and the stock has then fallen back. And I agree.

The Hearing segment was not just an asset that had lost favour. It was also a key support for the group’s margin profile and an important part of the original MedTech thesis. What remains is Enterprise and Gaming, including SteelSeries, both of which face more obvious structural pressure.

I think it is time to step off the GN Store Nord train, and looks elsewhere for better opportunities.

Read my full break-down here (paid content).

Closing thought

I hope you found something useful here. I’ll keep refining the format as I go. I aim to send another one next week. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next company deep dive.

Fjord Alpha

Fjord Alpha Signal: Weekly Digest #01